The surprise package emerging from the first few weeks of the season are Graham Potter’s Brighton & Hove Albion. A 1-1 draw at fierce rivals Crystal Palace yesterday sent them level on points with the likes of Man City, Chelsea, and Man Utd. But what has changed for the Seagulls from last season when they finished 16th?
Chris Hughton set the foundation upon which Graham Potter built this team
While they are playing some good football under Graham Potter, former manager Chris Hughton also deserves huge credit. He took over the club in 2014, and after three years, finally got promotion into the Premier League. Hughton spent two seasons in the top-flight as their manager. The first was a successful one, securing a 16th placed finish and reaching the 40-point mark. They also picked up impressive wins over Man Utd and Arsenal along the way.
The next campaign was slightly inconsistent, but the ultimate objective was achieved – to avoid relegation. They finished 17th, with a modest 36 points, and an FA Cup semi-final run. But the board wasn’t satisfied and dismissed Chris Hughton, after five years in-charge, indicating the ambition of the club. In his place came former Swansea manager Graham Potter.
Potter’s appointment suggested that the club wanted to move forward. They didn’t just want to be the whipping boys of the league, who barely survive with 37-40 points and a hefty negative goal difference. They wanted to move up the table and play an attractive brand of football to go toe-to-toe with the big boys. Under the new manager, they’re gradually fulfilling that ambition.
From a tall striker like Glenn Murray to the likes of Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck, the shift in approach is evident. Brighton don’t just want to hit their target man and build from him, they want to play football through midfield. That is why players like Adam Lallana were signed. That is why the likes of Yves Bissouma are becoming hot properties.
In last season’s first game, even though they lost 3-1 to Chelsea, they gave us a sign of things to come. They applied the press, challenged Chelsea for possession, and had bodies committed forward to every attack. A young and energetic Tariq Lamptey bombing forward from right-back became a familiar sight until his injury. Brighton scored some beautiful goals, not relying on set pieces or a big striker competing for headers to set up something.
Brighton failed to put their chances to bed
But while their football was joyous, they often lacked the end product it deserved. Brighton would work the ball around well to set up chances, but their front men were unable to convert them. And in an unforgiving league like the Premier League, you get punished when you do that. A prime example was the game against Man Utd, where they dominated the ball, hit the woodwork FIVE times, but ended up losing 3-2.
That would become a familiar theme for the season. With the quality of football they were producing, they should have finished in the European places (not exaggerating). However, their profligacy in front of goal held them back to 16th. This was reflected in the expected goals (xG) table. Brighton scored 40 goals but their xG tally was 53.82. In short, that means they should have scored about 54 goals with the quality of chances they created. That difference between goals scored and expected goals scored was the second highest last season, and the highest among the surviving teams. Based on those numbers, their expected points (xPTS) figure was 61.41, a staggering 20 more than the 41 they actually put on the board. If we rank the teams based on xPTS, Brighton would have finished 5th!
Fast forward to this season, and they have sorted that one problem. Brighton are outscoring their xG figure. The likes of Maupay, Leandro Trossard, Welbeck and others have found their feet. That has helped Brighton up to sixth, just one point behind leaders Liverpool. If they carry on in this fashion, there’s no doubt that they’ll go on to achieve big things this season. Earlier in this article I called them surprise package, though it isn’t much of a surprise. We knew they’re capable of this from last season.
They haven’t finished higher than 15th and haven’t registered more than 41 points in a campaign. You can bet on them surpassing those numbers with ease, and with the likes of Leicester City and Leeds United struggling, a European place is up for grabs for this fearless, brave-hearted Brighton side.