The race for Europe is the only thing to look forward to in the final matchweek of the season.
Let’s be honest, the title race was very one-sided in the end. It promised a lot in the beginning, but by mid-March, we knew where the title was heading. Something similar can be said of the relegation fight, with the bottom-three remaining the same since matchweek 12.
But one thing that has really compensated is the race for Europe. Of all the teams, Leicester City have spent the maximum days in the top-four, and could yet finish outside it. Both Chelsea and Liverpool recovered from mid-season slumps to be in the driver seat. The race is between the three, so without further ado, let’s get into what is possible for each team heading into the final day, then extend this to the race for Europe in general.
3rd – Chelsea (Points: 67, GD: +23)
Match on final day: Aston Villa (A)
Best case scenario: Chelsea win. That’s the advantage of having fate in your own hands, you aren’t dependent on other teams for your best case scenario. Chelsea will secure third with a win.
Worst case scenario: Chelsea lose, Liverpool avoid defeat and Leicester win. In this case, Chelsea would have to rely on winning the Champion’s League this season to qualify for the next season.
Likely scenario: Chelsea will qualify for the Champion’s League. I don’t see Leicester beating Spurs, so that will be enough for the Blues to achieve their target for this season.
4th – Liverpool (Points: 66, GD: +24)
Match on final day: Crystal Palace (H)
Best case scenario: Liverpool win, Chelsea don’t win. In that case, the Reds will finish third, something that looked impossible just a few weeks ago.
Worst case scenario: Liverpool lose, Leicester avoid defeat. This will see Jurgen Klopp’s men crash out of next season’s Champion’s League, and will have to settle for the Europa League.
Likely scenario: They will finish fourth. I don’t think Leicester will beat Spurs, and I don’t see them losing to Palace. So even if both draw, Liverpool will finish fourth.
5th – Leicester City (Points: 66, GD: +20)
Match on final day: Tottenham (H)
Best case scenario: Leicester win, Chelsea and Liverpool don’t. This will not only guarantee Champion’s League, but Leicester will finish third, above Chelsea and Liverpool.
Worst case scenario: Leicester lose. They are at least guaranteed a fifth-placed finish, so even if West Ham win and they lose, they’ll finish where they started the matchweek.
Likely scenario: Leicester finish fifth. I don’t think they will be able to beat Spurs, a draw looks likely. Unfortunately that might not be enough, and they would finish fifth.
6th – West Ham United (Points: 62, GD: +12)
Match on final day: Southampton (H)
Best case scenario: West Ham win. Even if Liverpool and/or Leicester lose, they will be one point ahead of the Hammers. So they can’t finish higher than sixth.
Worst case scenario: West Ham lose, Spurs and Everton win. And if there is an eight-goal swing between West Ham and Everton, West Ham could drop out of Europe. However this is very unlikely, as Spurs visit Champion’s League chasing Leicester, while Everton travel to champions Man City.
Likely scenario: West Ham will finish in the Europa League spot. They only require a draw from their home game against 14th-placed Southampton.
7th – Tottenham (Points: 59, GD: +21)
Match on final day: Leicester City (A)
Best case scenario: Tottenham win and West Ham lose. They could upgrade from Conference League to Europa League.
Worst case scenario: If they fail to win, Spurs could not only miss out on Europe, but also face the prospect of finishing behind north London rivals Arsenal. Mathematically, they could finish as low as 10th if Everton, Arsenal and Leeds win their games, Spurs lose, and there is a 15-goal swing between Spurs and Leeds.
Likely scenario: UEFA Conference League is what Spurs will get. Even though I don’t think they’ll win at Leicester, I also don’t think Everton or Arsenal will be able to usurp them in the table.
8th – Everton (Points: 59, GD: +4)
Match on final day: Man City (A)
Best case scenario: Everton win, West Ham lose, and there’s an eight goal swing. In this case (though very unlikely), Everton will jump from outside Europe into Europa League.
Worst case scenario: Everton lose, Arsenal and Leeds win. That will result in Everton finishing 10th, which will be a real disappointment considering the early season promise.
Likely scenario: Everton will most likely finish outside Europe as I don’t see them getting the win they need at the Etihad.
9th – Arsenal (Points: 58, GD: +14)
Match on final day: Brighton (H)
Best case scenario: Arsenal win, Spurs and Everton don’t win. This will also assure only a UEFA Conference League spot, in what has been a disappointing campaign for the Gunners.
Worst case scenario: Arsenal lose, Leeds win. Thanks to a strong finish to the season, Leeds will fancy their chances of that happening, as they host relegated West Brom.
Likely scenario: Arsenal will draw. They too are finishing strongly, and even though Brighton are in great form, the Gunners will get the draw that’ll keep them above Leeds (unless Leeds win by 8+ goals).